Polygraph

Why we get things wrong

Seven things that make checking a claim hard.

Software decides every Polygraph verdict, and some are wrong. These are the seven reasons, and what we do about each.

01The post leaves out the context.

Who is speaking, which city, since when: a reader knows, and the words alone carry almost none of it.

@forthecity· Tuesday

Crime is up 40%. They did nothing.

The claim, as the words give it

“Crime is up 40%.”

  1. Who is speakingA candidate for mayor, a week before the vote
  2. Which placeOne city, never named
  3. Which periodSince the mayor took office
  4. Which countReported violent crime only
  5. Against which baseThe lowest year in a decade

The claim, with its context

“Reported violent crime in the city is up about 40% from its lowest year in a decade.”

IllustrationWe build that context over time, from the account and its earlier posts.

02Many records sit where we have no reader yet.

Dockets, state PDFs and county databases each need their own reader, and we build them one at a time.

“Trump won Georgia by about five points in 2016.”

  • News and wire servicesThe result, rarely the marginThe result, rarely the marginRead
  • Fact-checker archivesEarlier checksEarlier checksRead
  • EncyclopediasThe winner, the electoral votesThe winner, the electoral votesRead
  • Government statistics pagesA page per tableA page per tableRead
  • PDF reports and filingsPage 40 of a 200-page reportPage 40 of a 200-page reportBuilding
  • Court docketsA filing, as filedA filing, as filedBuilding
  • State and county databasesThe county tally that settles this claimThe county tally that settles this claimNo reader yetwhere this claim’s record lives
  • Video archivesWhat was said on airWhat was said on airNo reader yet
  • Paywalled archivesReporting from before the webReporting from before the webNo reader yet
Real caseThe margin is in the state’s county tally, which no web search returns.

03The same words mean different things in different mouths.

A claim is checked on its own, so the speaker and the place have to travel with it.

“Crime is up.”

A mayor

Of the city, where violent crime rose

True

The local record supports it.

A senator

Of the country, where it fell

False

The national record contradicts it.

Illustration

A post that quotes another carries two claims: that the words were said, and what the words say.

@sen_press· quoting the agency

They finally admit it: “the program has failed.”

The post’s claim

Did the agency say that?

The claim it carries

Did the program fail?

The same post from a satire account:

read straightFalseas meantTrue

IllustrationSarcasm is the hard edge: the same words with a wink mean the opposite.

04Readers forgive a word. Software must be told where.

To a reader these two posts make one claim, but our rules saw two and gave two verdicts.

“The United States is currently engaged in a war with Iran.”

Trueconfidence 1.0

“The United States government is currently engaged in a war with Iran.”

Falseconfidence .9

A readerOne claim, said two ways.

Our rulesTwo claims, two searches, two verdicts.

Real caseSame day, same software. One claim should get one verdict.

With numbers the line is exact: inside the estimates is true, a little high is mixed, double is false.

Estimates of the cost

True

the post: $1.5B
$1.4B$2.2Bpublished estimates

“Up 40%”, from three bases

From last year
+40%
From the 2019 low
+133%
From the 2022 peak
+4%
Real case · IllustrationThe range is a real case we called mixed. The bars show one rise from three bases.

05Video and images say things the transcript misses.

A chart’s numbers can be only pixels, and tying words to picture is what we do least well.

A frame of the videoSix bars, no labels, no source

The transcript

“…and as you can see right here, it has doubled since they took office.”

The transcript keeps “right here” and loses what it points at.

IllustrationWhat a glance catches: the axis, the cropped date, which chart “right here” means.

06Reliable sources disagree, and the verdict must say so.

Every source is rated, and a verdict weighs them by rating, never by how many pages agree.

  • Agency statisticsPrimary12,400
  • Wire serviceTier 1about 12,000
  • Advocacy groupTier 340,000
  • Anonymous blogUnrated100,000+

Truefor a post that said 12,000, disagreement noted

IllustrationWhen equal sources disagree, the summary says so and confidence comes down.

07Check early, and the record may not exist yet.

A check takes minutes, but the reporting that settles a claim takes hours or days.

“The plant shut down because of the new rule.”

The record
Local reportingthe owner’s statement
Official responsethe regulator’s account
Other fact-checkerstheir reads
post10 min6 hours1 day3 days
Our check
First checkCan’t tellnothing to stand on yet
Checked againFalsethe owner cited costs, not the rule
IllustrationAn early check can be run again later. Every verdict is dated.

Our ongoing mission.

These six are the standing commitments the verifier is held to, measured against claims that people settled first.

  1. 01Context that travelsWe check a claim with the account, the place and the period behind it.
  2. 02Readers for every recordWe build readers for dockets, PDFs, state databases and video.
  3. 03One claim, one verdictNear-identical claims get the same answer. Contested words come back mixed.
  4. 04Checked again laterWe re-check a first-hour verdict once the reporting exists, both dated.
  5. 05Never wrong while sureA confident verdict is one you can trust outright.
  6. 06Reading the whole postWe read the chart, the clip and the caption with the words.

Getting this right takes all of us.

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Last revised October 10, 2026.